Friday, March 05, 2010

Are the greenshoots for real?

Gyanendra Kumar Kashyap explains why rural India will be the next battleground for the insurance players and why will the growth come from there…
Year 2009 saw the Indian insurance industry face an extraordinary confluence of testing macroeconomic trends along with unique challenges & opportunities. As revenue growth went downhill, margins came under pressure and capital requirements surged, and with it increased the urgency for the insurers to reduce their costs, strengthen their risk management and stabilise capital positions. And if one goes by a latest report from Swiss Re (the second largest reinsurer globally), one sees that, “reduced demand, low interest rates and the need for many companies to recapitalise are some of the challenges that the industry will face in 2010.” Notwithstanding the challenges, the untapped potential of life insurance in India (whose penetration level still stands at a miniscule 4%) is certainly that one thing which can alone make the insurance industry prosper in the near future. Learning bitter lessons during the slowdown, players are now increasingly focusing on operating efficiencies and are looking at right sizing their frontline sales force and making them more efficient. As per the latest available numbers, while the annualised premium earnings (APE) for the private life insurance players has increased by a healthy 29.6%, the same was pegged at a whopping 45% for the state-owned LIC. The general insurance segment too witnessed a 16% (y-o-y) growth of the gross premium underwritten.

These numbers bear testimony to the fact that insurers are now evaluating economic returns before making any new investment. Aware of the shifting landscape, the insurance regulator IRDA too is in the process of framing guidelines for M&As in the sector. Not only this, the regulator also plans to come out with IPO guidelines for insurance companies by February-end which will allow them to raise funds from the capital markets (Reliance Life could be the first life insurance company in the country to come out with an IPO). These guidelines will further protect the policyholders’ interests and also ensure transparency and corporate governance.

Considering all this, one can say that the insurance industry in India is certainly ready for a fresh start. In fact, industry leaders like Deepak Sood, CEO of Future Generali India Life Insurance Co, believe that with rising optimism in the Indian stock markets, it’s time that customers reap the benefits of a market that has shown stability and resilience and is poised for a long-term positive run. Further, as private players take on public sector behemoths by having strategic tie ups with regional rural banks, rural India will be the much wanted battleground. Harpal Karlcut, CEO, Canara HSBC Oriental Bank of Commerce Life Insurance Co agrees with the recent development as he tells B&E, “Given that the market is inadequately insured, rural areas offer great potential. We are aided by our strong distribution model that will enable us to take life insurance to large sections of the society and help meet every Indian’s need for insurance.” With India’s poorest sections living in rural areas, it’ll be interesting to see how the insurance giants finally end up making money.

UP AND COMINING

Since the stock market lows last March, the life insurance stocks have recovered dramatically. In 2010, capital concerns will be largely behind the industry and investors will return their focus on the underlying business fundamentals of the sector. Though the fundamentals of the industry are expected to improve in 2010, the sector will still face some headwinds. In addition, while one can anticipate investment income to increase over the 2009 levels as insurers put more money to work in the debt markets, most insurers will continue to maintain defensive liquidity positions, which will act as a drag on earnings growth. It is also expected that the overall sales volumes, especially those of higher premium products, will remain depressed versus the levels seen in most of this decade. Although merger and acquisitions were virtually non-existent in 2009, the situation is all set to change in 2010.
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IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Thursday, March 04, 2010

Deconstructing Green Hunt

The State does not seem to be on the winning side as the Maoists are keen to negotiate from a point of view of strength, Consulting Editor Tathagata Bhattacharya says

Green Hunt has not had the desired effect in all the states in which operations were launched to curb the growing clout of the Maoists. The Maoist offer of a 72-day ceasefire can’t be taken as a mark of weakness if one sees their quick spread in West Bengal and Bihar. In Chattisgarh, Maoists have suffered some reverses though but the forces' success is nothing to write home about.

Twelve encounters in three months and 60 Maoists dead. The anti-Naxalite combat force, Cobra, comprising at least 2000 policemen, are searching the jungles of Rajnandgaon and Bastar in Chattisgarh amid human rights groups and sympathisers of the Naxalite movement strongly protesting the ongoing offensive.

According to a certain estimate, there are about 10,000 Maoist rebels active throughout the state and Bastar is their centre. Bastar is surrounded by dense jungles on all sides and has borders with Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. This has hindered police operations before. Porous borders with other states helped Maoists to escape from one state to another. But, now police is adopting a new strategy to plug this gap. If one battalion of police force is conducting operations in Dantewada, another is making its base in Rajanandgaon. This can be a long-drawn battle, DGP Vishwaranjan has said. Along with the Central forces, the state governments of Chattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are also joining hands to ring the Maoists. One company of force, five helicopters and Rs 100 crore have been requested from the Centre to fight the Maoists.

At least 14 districts of the state have been identified as naxalite strongholds, plans are on to surround them. While talking to TSI, Mukesh Gupta, IG, Durga Range, said that the operation was underway and it was not possible to divulge details. Green Hunt has, of late, started showing positive results. Two weeks back the state police destroyed two Maoist camps. At least 800 local policemen attacked the Naxalite-affected area in Burqlanka. The operation continued for three days and more than seven Maoists were killed. A weapons factory was destroyed. Six policemen also lost their lives during the operation. But despite the set back, Chattisgarh home minister Nankiram Kanwar said that November onwards, the attack on Maoists will be more aggressive and by the end of the year, the Naxalite problem will be wiped off Dantewada district. Kanwar has reportedly announced that if the state is not free of Maoists in one year, he would tender his resignation.

However, going by the pace of the operation, i.e 60 Maoists in three months, it seems his resignation might be the more likely scenario than weeding out 10,000 armed men in one year. Since the Nitish Kumar government came to power four years back, Bihar has not seen Maoist activities on the scale it was used to. But things might be changing fast. After the Central government unleashed Green Hunt, Maoists from Chattisgarh and Orissa are escaping to Bihar. Out of the 44 districts in Bihar, 33 has been declared Naxalite-affected. Earlier, only central Bihar was considered as Maoist stronghold. The Maoists have used this opportunity to expand their territories to districts close to Nepal. Besides, they have strengthened themselves in West Champaran, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Darbhanga, Madhubani, Bhagalpur, Banka, Jamui and Lakhisarai.

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Of budgets and off budgets

For the middle class families, rising food prices have proved to be killing and the steps by government are a big joke, say Vikas Kumar and Niharika Patra

Sadhana Singh gets perplexed, mystified, exasperated and even infuriated when she watches news on TV or reads the front pages of her newspaper these days. She is sick and tired of Baluchistan, the fight between Anil and Mukesh Ambani, the antics of participants in Rakhi Ka Swayamvar and the statues that UP Chief Minister Mayawati is erecting. She is terribly disappointed with the media; she never had any hopes from august members of Parliament anyway. “Rising costs of groceries have completely damaged our monthly budget. It is really difficult to maintain the same standard. Our monthly saving is now nil,” says this agitated bank employee, even as she struggles to identify one ‘cheap’ vegetable in the market.

There are literally millions of consumers, homemakers and families across India who share the rising desperation of Sadhna Singh. For them, all the stuff that comes out in newspapers about the rate of inflation falling below zero is a bad joke inflicted upon them in poor taste. School teacher Rajarshi couldn’t care less about the subtle differences between the wholesale and the consumer price index; it is ‘price’ that is killing her, day in and day out. But as former RBI Governor Bimal Jalan says, we should focus on the consumer price index rather than the wholesale one while talking about consumer inflation. And that index is galloping ahead at double digit rates.

Most of them still think that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has the experience and the wisdom to stem the rot; but they can’t help wondering why Mr. Singh is not paying more attention to such ‘bread and butter’ issues. Reality for them is the relentless rise in prices of goods and services that account for the bulk of a middle-class family budget. And the price hikes in many cases are incredibly high. Fond of cauliflower and capsicum? Be prepared to shell out Rs.80 per kg. Think you can increase the ‘nutrition’ quotient in the diet of your child by adding more Arhar Dal? You need to be ready to shell out close to Rs.100 per kg. Have a sweet tooth? Well, sugar is touching Rs.30 per kg.

Those are not just the normal day to day food items that are wreaking havoc on middle-class family budgets. Thanks to the largesse doled out by the Sixth Pay Commission, the amount of money they have to pay as school fees for their children has virtually doubled – often with retrospective effect. And unlike their luckier ‘government employee’ counterparts, an overwhelming majority of those working in the private sector have not seen a pay hike for more than a year. Says Rajarshi, “I have two sons and their school fees have now doubled. I don’t know how will I pay all this.” Rajarshi and her husband really don’t know how to tackle this situation. So, middle-class Indians like Sadhna and Rajarshi who used to save about Rs.5,000 per month have now seen their savings dwindle to literally nothing.

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Friday, February 26, 2010

A space treatise

Russia becomes a space educator

America’s Neil Armstrong being the first man on moon notwithstanding, what has not got much publicity – albeit aided by the Russian style of shrouding everything in secrecy – has been Russian endeavours and achievements in space. These, incidentally, much before Neil Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin even put their feet on the moon. Typical to the western style of functioning, the disintegration of the Soviet Union brought a seat of the pants sense of jubilation among the Americans who assumed that this would draw curtains on Russian competition against NASA. However, soaring oil and minerals prices in the international market was all that Russia needed to resurrect itself; and once again to pose a challenge to its bete-noire, the NASA.

Russia’s exports of gas and minerals has not only rejuvenated a dying economy to be a trillion dollar GDP giant now, but has also given enough impetus to fund their federal space programs with a handsome 305 billion rubles. The trend has been continuing throughout this decade with the space budget doubling by 2009. And changing times however have taught Russia the art of marketing and minting money out of its space exercises. In 2005, Russia’s federal space agency further declared their preparedness towards cosmic tourism. It will have moon visit programs costing $100 million. This announcement was in line with the launch of NASA’s space shuttle Discovery from Kennedy Space Station. In order to exploit this opportunity to the maximum, Russia is investing around $100 billion in their space stations (Soyuz capsule and Progress craft) and cosmonaut centres. Russia has opened up its cosmonaut centres to the common man to perhaps make the new age Russian take more pride in erstwhile glories of USSR.

Hopefully, these endeavours of Russia would revive the interest of youth in space with an emphasis on knowledge rather than on using the same for war. Space truly contains the final frontiers for mankind, an ‘enterprising’ voyage surely; and perhaps, just perhaps, one day, the urge to explore space will go beyond exhibitionism – on who reached Mars first – and reach the realms of exploration for the advancement of mankind.
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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Keep expanding the two-wheeler customer base by exploring markets across geographies

Hero Honda also increased its distribution channel outreach during the year gone by. It built an extensive network of over 3,500 touch-points across the country, selling and servicing its two-wheelers. The company’s rural initiatives have further strengthened its presence in the rural markets, a geographical segment which contributes to 40% of its total sales. Pawan Munjal, Managing Director, Hero Honda, in all joy explains further, “An unprecedented share of over 57% in the domestic motorcycle market particularly when the industry has been witnessing a massive slowdown on account of the impact of recessionary trends across the globe, the credit squeeze and the uncertainty over interest rates in the country is reflective of the strong fundamentals of this company. We as the market leader are committed to keep expanding the two-wheeler customer base by exploring markets across geographies – rural as well as urban – and across customer segments, which in turn will contribute to the growth of the industry.”

But question Munjal on which is the most critical strategy for the company and he shoots back, “All the pillars combined are contributing equally to the growth of the company; then let it be the rural expansion or the aggressive marketing strategy.” The company has a capacity to produce around 4.9 million two-wheelers every year from its plants located at Gurgaon, Daruhera & Haridwar, enough to comfortably fulfil the demand of the Indian two-wheeler consumers for a calendar year. Even auto expert Murad Ali Baig is all praise for the company as he outlines, “Hero Honda as a two-wheeler company, is known for its continuity and stable approach that the company follows...”

The company also created waves last year through its strong association with the youth and its effective campaigns in the rural markets. Stunning market watchers, Hero Honda even came up with a 3-minute television spot, with the who’s who of celeb endorsers; at a time when cost-cutting was the prime tune all around. Moreover, Hero Honda’s campaign ‘Har Gaaon…Har Aangan’ worked wonders in rural markets “In the past year consumers have seen Hero Honda almost everywhere. It was all a part of a plan made long back to get close to the Indian consumer,” avers Anil Dua, Sr. VP (Marketing & Sales), Hero Honda. Fantastic work for 2008-09. But will history repeat itself? For the answers to that, grab our next B&E Power 100 listing...

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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