Under the circumstances, all eyes are fixed on the Palace that still holds enormous and overpowering sway over every institution. Just to put it on record, in the bloody unrest of 1992, it was the timely intervention by King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who had rebuked both the military and the uprising leaders, which brought the hostility to an end. Under such circumstances, the silence of the Palace this time is quite baffling.
Also, the role of ousted Prime Minister Takshin Shinawatra is going to be very crucial. After all, his supporters constitute the majority of the Reds. Till now, the only sensible move he has made is of askining the international community to intervene. By doing so, he intends to send out a loud message that he is politically alive and can call shots as per his whim. “The villages and the subalterns are all for Shinawatra. His universal healthcare scheme and waiver of agro-debt did magic for him. He was considered by the destitute and poor as their man—hundreds of corruption charges notwithstanding,” says Andrew Walker, a South-east Asia expert based in Canberra, while talking to TSI.
However, the same cannot be said about the Reds. Its ranks and files are deeply fragmented. While the core of the movement is in close coordination with Shinawatra, a relatively small but exponentially more zealous section has different ideas about the outlook for Thai politics. And this section is all willing to look through Shinawatra. Also, on scratching the surface a bit, one can tell that this is as much a class conflict as it is a diazotisation movement. The regime, the army, the burgeoning trading community, the bureaucrats and the judiciary are all drawn from Thailand’s elite. For several decades, they have evoked extra-constitutional methods to subvert democracy. They have shot down pro-democracy demonstrators in 1973, 1976, 1992 and 2009 prior to this. The regime dismisses the Reds as rural bumpkins. But it appears, this time around, they have bitten more than they can chew.
Also, the role of ousted Prime Minister Takshin Shinawatra is going to be very crucial. After all, his supporters constitute the majority of the Reds. Till now, the only sensible move he has made is of askining the international community to intervene. By doing so, he intends to send out a loud message that he is politically alive and can call shots as per his whim. “The villages and the subalterns are all for Shinawatra. His universal healthcare scheme and waiver of agro-debt did magic for him. He was considered by the destitute and poor as their man—hundreds of corruption charges notwithstanding,” says Andrew Walker, a South-east Asia expert based in Canberra, while talking to TSI.
However, the same cannot be said about the Reds. Its ranks and files are deeply fragmented. While the core of the movement is in close coordination with Shinawatra, a relatively small but exponentially more zealous section has different ideas about the outlook for Thai politics. And this section is all willing to look through Shinawatra. Also, on scratching the surface a bit, one can tell that this is as much a class conflict as it is a diazotisation movement. The regime, the army, the burgeoning trading community, the bureaucrats and the judiciary are all drawn from Thailand’s elite. For several decades, they have evoked extra-constitutional methods to subvert democracy. They have shot down pro-democracy demonstrators in 1973, 1976, 1992 and 2009 prior to this. The regime dismisses the Reds as rural bumpkins. But it appears, this time around, they have bitten more than they can chew.
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