If you thought oil would run out, take a walk (no pun!). Oil isn’t running out, but your money would, given the fact that despite current oil price falls (!!!), rising demand would ensure future oil price rise! And worse, alternative fuel also sucks! virat bahri of B&E confounds [us too!]...
“We are very sorry, Sir, no more is left, not a single drop :(”
“C’mon, mate, you must be joking; this can’t be happening.”
“Believe us Sir, the world has seen the last of black gold! It’s the end of ‘automobil’ity...”
Uhh, alright, it sounded more childish than I should
have wanted; but how does one put across the fact that oil may one day run out when, er, it perhaps would never! OPEC’s latest report estimates that between the years 1995-2003, new discoveries improved recoveries by 138 billion barrels. Production has already increased by 26% as compared to the 1960s. By 2020, oil production is likely to cross 1600 billion barrels annually. If such is the case, as Dustin Hoffman asks lovely Mrs. Robinson, where lies the problem? Demand honey, demand. Demand for oil would [should?] far outstrip supply in the coming years. Oil has become a necessary evil for us; it is guzzling down our, and my, bank balances like nobody’s business, yet you can’t imagine life without it. Goddammit, I can’t! And there lies the need to cut across to alternative or quasi-alternative fuel. This dire need to make black gold less ‘necessary’ so that it can become a much subdued ‘evil’ has given rise to numerous technological breakthroughs in alternative fuel technology, giving cars that can run on electricity, hydrogen, E 85 (85% ethanol and 15% gasoline), nuclear, solar, et al. Hybrids have shown some promise too. India has seen its first hybrid in the form of Hero Honda Civic. But considering that these alternatives are yet to convert into truly marketable solutions, aren’t we moving a bit too slow? Moreover we seem to have many technologies posing as possible solutions, but do we have ‘the’ solution in sight?
Let’s take the instance of hybrids firstly (combination of electricity and gasoline). They have seen the greatest success in developed world markets in particular due to the fact that they require no disruption of the existing oil infrastructure. In the US, some 347,102 hybrids were sold in 2007 (source: Green Car Congress), dominated by Toyota, with over 70% share of the market. Quite interestingly though, hybrids account for around 2.15% of the total new vehicle sales in the US that year. But considering the first hybrid to enter India, the Honda Civic, costs a whopping Rs.18-22 lakhs, one can’t see it moving into the common man’s realm very soon. Honda has in fact contemplated developing a hybrid hatchback, which will be smaller and cheaper than the Civic hybrid. Dick Colliver, Executive VP, Honda US, did admit to international media, “Our goal for this new hybrid model (is) to make it affordable to a new generation of car buyers.” Toyota has reportedly set up a stiff target for bringing in hybrid versions into all its models, and that target is... hold your breath... 2020!
Competitor GM’s hybrid plans have often been a subject of speculation. When I catch up with Larry Burns, in an exclusive to B&E, this Vice President of GM’s R&D and Strategic Initiatives, reveals, “By the end of the year, we will have eight hybrids on the market, and we will more than double that number by the end of 2011. Along with increased efficiency, hybrid systems give us additional engineering, manufacturing, and market experience with electric motors, power electronics, and advanced batteries – which are all critically important components in our future electric vehicles.” As per his viewpoint, electrically driven vehicles present the most compelling case as future alternative.
For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
“We are very sorry, Sir, no more is left, not a single drop :(”
“C’mon, mate, you must be joking; this can’t be happening.”
“Believe us Sir, the world has seen the last of black gold! It’s the end of ‘automobil’ity...”
Uhh, alright, it sounded more childish than I should
have wanted; but how does one put across the fact that oil may one day run out when, er, it perhaps would never! OPEC’s latest report estimates that between the years 1995-2003, new discoveries improved recoveries by 138 billion barrels. Production has already increased by 26% as compared to the 1960s. By 2020, oil production is likely to cross 1600 billion barrels annually. If such is the case, as Dustin Hoffman asks lovely Mrs. Robinson, where lies the problem? Demand honey, demand. Demand for oil would [should?] far outstrip supply in the coming years. Oil has become a necessary evil for us; it is guzzling down our, and my, bank balances like nobody’s business, yet you can’t imagine life without it. Goddammit, I can’t! And there lies the need to cut across to alternative or quasi-alternative fuel. This dire need to make black gold less ‘necessary’ so that it can become a much subdued ‘evil’ has given rise to numerous technological breakthroughs in alternative fuel technology, giving cars that can run on electricity, hydrogen, E 85 (85% ethanol and 15% gasoline), nuclear, solar, et al. Hybrids have shown some promise too. India has seen its first hybrid in the form of Hero Honda Civic. But considering that these alternatives are yet to convert into truly marketable solutions, aren’t we moving a bit too slow? Moreover we seem to have many technologies posing as possible solutions, but do we have ‘the’ solution in sight?Let’s take the instance of hybrids firstly (combination of electricity and gasoline). They have seen the greatest success in developed world markets in particular due to the fact that they require no disruption of the existing oil infrastructure. In the US, some 347,102 hybrids were sold in 2007 (source: Green Car Congress), dominated by Toyota, with over 70% share of the market. Quite interestingly though, hybrids account for around 2.15% of the total new vehicle sales in the US that year. But considering the first hybrid to enter India, the Honda Civic, costs a whopping Rs.18-22 lakhs, one can’t see it moving into the common man’s realm very soon. Honda has in fact contemplated developing a hybrid hatchback, which will be smaller and cheaper than the Civic hybrid. Dick Colliver, Executive VP, Honda US, did admit to international media, “Our goal for this new hybrid model (is) to make it affordable to a new generation of car buyers.” Toyota has reportedly set up a stiff target for bringing in hybrid versions into all its models, and that target is... hold your breath... 2020!
Competitor GM’s hybrid plans have often been a subject of speculation. When I catch up with Larry Burns, in an exclusive to B&E, this Vice President of GM’s R&D and Strategic Initiatives, reveals, “By the end of the year, we will have eight hybrids on the market, and we will more than double that number by the end of 2011. Along with increased efficiency, hybrid systems give us additional engineering, manufacturing, and market experience with electric motors, power electronics, and advanced batteries – which are all critically important components in our future electric vehicles.” As per his viewpoint, electrically driven vehicles present the most compelling case as future alternative.
For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
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