On the day of polls, large lines were seen outside booths in Southern districts where as polling in Colombo, UNP’s bastion, was moderate. “He has won the war for us. It will be a betrayal if we don’t vote him,” said M. Udayange, 30, after casting his vote for Rajapaksa in the Wellawetta area of Colombo. JVP’s dedicated cadres tried to make inroads for Fonseka in the interiors but failed miserably. In fact, several of the old-time cadres of both JVP and UNP were seen voting for Rajapaksa. “I was with UNP but I’ll vote for Rajapaksa. Fonseka is trying to divide the nation,” said 60-year-old H. G. Chaturanga outside a polling booth in Ratnapura district. There is definitely a question mark on the future of both the parties as they are losing their cadre and mass base to Rajapaksa. Ranil Wickramasinghe runs the risk of becoming irrelevant.
Political critic Jehan Perera says, “The results have been surprising and unexpected. However, this asymmetrical result has much to do with the asymmetrical campaign that was launched by both the candidates. The incumbent had the entire government machinery at his disposal and he used it to maximum effect as far as spread of propaganda is concerned.”
There is a need to understand the verdict in terms of the dynamics of Lankan politics. The most stunning imagery of the approach in which Northern Tamils analyse polls was given to me by a voter who was born, brought up and worked in the peninsula. He contrasted the jubilation and revelry in the south, following the announcement, with the sense of trepidation and insecurity in the north. While down south, there was a sense of “our government” being voted in, in Jaffna, it was more of a sense of a “Sinhalese government” over which the Tamil people would have limited or no sway at all.
In fact, it was the limited participation of Tamils in their provinces of dominance that sunk Fonseka. Tamil National Alliance (TNA), unarguably the sole representatives of Jaffna Tamils, joined ranks with Fonseka, prior to the elections. The decision did not convince majority of the Tamils who had suffered from the war. Also, limited availability of transportation and sporadic grenade blasts stopped many voters to venture out. “It was more a rational decision than an emotional response. Since Fonseka represented a rainbow coalition, he was more of a national candidate than the president. UNP had the largest block base where JVP has the most politicised and committed cadres,” defends political analyst K Sarveswaran.
But why were Tamils confused? Well, one of its leaders, Douglas Devananda, defected to Rajapaksa. Douglas will gain the most from the spoils. He once drew parallel between Tamil nationalism and cholesterol, saying just as there is good and bad cholesterol, there is good and bad Tamil nationalism and that you need good Tamil nationalism just like the body needs good cholesterol.
“Devananda remains close to the grassroots. He is the right mix of moderate-reformist Tamil nationalism with productive developmental attitude and populist progressivism,” says Dayan Jayatilleka, a pro-Rajapaksa political analyst.
But what changes can his fresh election bring for the Tamil people are pretty unclear. Rajapaksa won’t do much on political front as far as ethnic issues are concerned. In fact he has said that Tamils are not looking for any political package. Also, he is not likely to jeopardise the Sinhalese support he has got.
Political critic Jehan Perera says, “The results have been surprising and unexpected. However, this asymmetrical result has much to do with the asymmetrical campaign that was launched by both the candidates. The incumbent had the entire government machinery at his disposal and he used it to maximum effect as far as spread of propaganda is concerned.”
There is a need to understand the verdict in terms of the dynamics of Lankan politics. The most stunning imagery of the approach in which Northern Tamils analyse polls was given to me by a voter who was born, brought up and worked in the peninsula. He contrasted the jubilation and revelry in the south, following the announcement, with the sense of trepidation and insecurity in the north. While down south, there was a sense of “our government” being voted in, in Jaffna, it was more of a sense of a “Sinhalese government” over which the Tamil people would have limited or no sway at all.
In fact, it was the limited participation of Tamils in their provinces of dominance that sunk Fonseka. Tamil National Alliance (TNA), unarguably the sole representatives of Jaffna Tamils, joined ranks with Fonseka, prior to the elections. The decision did not convince majority of the Tamils who had suffered from the war. Also, limited availability of transportation and sporadic grenade blasts stopped many voters to venture out. “It was more a rational decision than an emotional response. Since Fonseka represented a rainbow coalition, he was more of a national candidate than the president. UNP had the largest block base where JVP has the most politicised and committed cadres,” defends political analyst K Sarveswaran.
But why were Tamils confused? Well, one of its leaders, Douglas Devananda, defected to Rajapaksa. Douglas will gain the most from the spoils. He once drew parallel between Tamil nationalism and cholesterol, saying just as there is good and bad cholesterol, there is good and bad Tamil nationalism and that you need good Tamil nationalism just like the body needs good cholesterol.
“Devananda remains close to the grassroots. He is the right mix of moderate-reformist Tamil nationalism with productive developmental attitude and populist progressivism,” says Dayan Jayatilleka, a pro-Rajapaksa political analyst.
But what changes can his fresh election bring for the Tamil people are pretty unclear. Rajapaksa won’t do much on political front as far as ethnic issues are concerned. In fact he has said that Tamils are not looking for any political package. Also, he is not likely to jeopardise the Sinhalese support he has got.
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